Friday, 11 December 2009

Predictably... Unpredictable

The met office is at it again predicting record highs that is. This time for Summer 2010.

Logically, sooner or later they may even turn out to be right if only by sheer chance and persistence .

But one can't help feeling that they are simply thinking... "Hmmnnn Global warming... Well it's bound to be hot isn't it? I Know! Lets just predict that. Not enough people will remember if we get it wrong again anyway."

I am sure we all remember the blistering "Barbecue summer" of 2009, with record highs predicted by the met office.

There was the recession and we were looking forward to being able to enjoy it in the UK for once. We had visions of Bournemouth being more like Niece. They coined the term Stay-cation in anticipation.

The Barbecue summer predictably failed to materialise and there was a last minute surge in Non European (Euro exchange rate being poor) bookings to escape the rain. Turkey anyone? Then it just kept raining with autumn seeing flood defences being overwhelmed... again.

Meteorologists if they are honest admit they can really only accurately predict the weather up to about five days ahead. Long term predictions about "big weather" effects, such as global warming for instance come from "Climatologists".

Also in line before the again predicted Barbecue summer is a mild winter

Interestingly the bookies, who make a good living out of calculating the odds - and getting it right - are shortening the odds on a white Christmas. More Turkey anyone?

One has to wonder about all these warm predictions. But some might not consider the Met Office boss John Hirst to be 100% disinterested and objective. He was reportedly leaning on his staff recently over the scandal at the Climatic research unit. He was very keen they all sign to "defend their profession" and state they had the "utmost confidence" in the evidence questioned. Without it seems looking too closely at the leaked emails.

Long range weather forecasts should not be simply Warmist propaganda. They should be as objectively accurate as possible. Even if the climate is warming it will surely be a trend but an average trend, not up every year.

Now if my boss leaned on me that way it would make me feel uncomfortable, Jobs are important in a recession.

It has apparently been suggested by some scientists that "The Met Office is a major employer of scientists and has long had a policy of only appointing and working with those who subscribe to their views on man-made global warming."

So it seems if you want to work you had better know what side your bread is buttered on.

Clearly the "Barbecue summer" side...

4 comments:

Mark Wadsworth said...

As and optimist (and spelling pedant) I am very much looking forward to a barbecue summer nexxt year.

Good to see you're posting again.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Damn. "next" should be with one "x". Serve me right, I suppose.

Phil A said...

Thanks.

I think you could have got away with the extra x as Irony, or possibly deconstructive humor, if you had just kept quiet. :-)

Phil A said...

BBQ fixed, you can't say I don't listen to comments. My only excuse it is so long since I had a chance to break out the barbie I completely forgot how to spell it :-)